GCZ17 – December Gold (Last:1333.40)

Today’s rally was the most important in gold since it entered a bull market in December 2015. Actually, from a technical standpoint the rally has significantly raised the odds that gold’s balky ascent since then has in fact been a bull market rather than a mere correction in a bear market begun from 2011’s record peak at $1911. It also put in play the 1474.4 target shown.  The rally achieved two additional feats, one of them crucial to the intermediate-to-long-term picture when it: 1) exceeded a 1352.90 Hidden Pivot target of middling importance; and, 2) pushed above the extremely important peak at 1353.00 recorded on the night Trump was elected.  All of this adds up to a greatly improved technical picture for gold — one that we will be watching closely to get the most possible leverage from bull trades in the weeks and months ahead. _______ UPDATE (Sep 10):  Use the secondary pivot at 1391.30 (see inset) as a minimum upside target for now. If buyers are intent on pushing the futures to at least 1474.40, they should make short work of the 1391.30 resistance. ________ UPDATE (Sep 11, 9:49 p.m.): This correction targets 1320.30 most immediately (60-min, a=1360.30 on 9/8), and there should be a tradeable bounce from that Hidden Pivot if bulls are about to get their mojo back. _______ UPDATE (Sep 12, 9:12 p.m.): The futures have rallied off the secondary pivot (1326.10) without having gotten near the 1320.30 downside target with which it is associated.  This is moderately bullish but would become still moreso if and when the move starts to exceed some prior peaks on the hourly chart. The first of significance lies at 1343.30, about $9 above current levels. ________ UPDATE (Sep 13, 10:37 p.m.): The futures relapsed down to 1322.20, settling just above the target flagged above. It remains valid and can be bottom-fished with a stop-loss as tight as 1319.90.________ UPDATE (Sep 15, 12:05 a.m.): The extremely tight, four-tick stop-loss I’d advised at 1319.90 amounted to showboating — and too bad, since the futures rallied $19 off a 1319.50 (!) low. Officially, I scored this trade a loser, but any subscriber with the good sense to have widened the stop just a smidgen would have done quite well.  Now the futures will need to push above 1343.30 for bulls to get something going.