AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:171.10)

Buyers have gone soft nearly $5 shy of the 181.11 Hidden Pivot we were using as a minimum upside target. After climbing no higher than 176.24, AAPL has come down hard since last Wednesday and now looks like a good bet to fall to at least 170.02 before it finds traction. At that point the stock will be feeling an urgent downward tug to fill the 3-point gap that occurred on November 3.  If in fact things play out that way, the stock market is certain to get dragged lower too, since the broad averages rarely go their separate way when AAPL is feeling blue.  Since sellers have long lacked the moxie to strike hard when things are going their way, and because the buy-the-dip mentality is probably as strong as it ever has been, we may be in for a boring stretch. _______ UPDATE (Nov 15, 10:08 p.m.) AAPL did in fact fill the gap noted above, with an opening bar that touched 168.38.  The subsequent bounce looked like sucker bait, so expect the stock to fall even lower today.  A logical minimum downside objective would be 165.25, where Apple shares bottomed on 11/2 ahead of a sharp,  fleeting rally. The net effect, ignoring overnight bars, is a bearish island-gap reversal pattern shown here. _______ UPDATE (Nov 16, 5:14 p.m.): The so-far two day bounce has yet to exceed any prior peaks even on the lowly 15-minute chart, so it remains suspect.  A print at 172.14 would tip the short-term outlook mildly bullish, but 173.26 would be significantly better.