Is Anyone Ready for a Bear Market?


From a technical standpoint, the S&Ps and the Dow rolled down from interesting places on Tuesday. The Indoos sputtered out precisely at the Hidden Pivot midpoint of a long-term pattern projecting above 28,000 mentioned here earlier. For their part, the E-Mini S&Ps died 20 points shy of a rally target that had looked like a lock-up. Taken together these things make me, if not bearish, then certainly cautious. Like just about everyone else who follows the markets, when I greet the new day, I take it as a given that the Dow will levitate at least 150-200 points. This expectation has become so ingrained in me that mental warning bells have begun to sound.  Few are prepared for the economic disaster that a bear market would bring. Goldman Sachs says that 4.5% on the Ten-Year Note would probably pull stocks down by 25%, but that the economy would slog through it. My gut feeling is that 4.5% on the Ten-Year would bring the Dow down by more than half just for starters and that the economy would look like a statistical war zone. Is anyone really ready for this, even those of us who have been bearish since…forever?

Comments on this entry are closed.

John Jay February 27, 2018, 8:37 pm

Rick, I think 4.5% on the 10 Year would bring down more than the Dow Industrial Average!
What would that rate do to Gold, Real Estate, and the US Dollar?

After decades of Fed intervention bringing ever lower interest rates, why would they reverse course now? You can certainly eliminate any “Change of Heart” and a return to market determined bond prices!
My own guess? This is yet another Deep State attempt to get rid of the Loose Cannon that they see in Donald Trump.

July of 2016 brought a weekly big bar down for ZB, November of 2016 brought an even bigger down bar on the weekly ZB.
Reaction to Trump coming out on top for the Republican nomination, and an even bigger reaction when he actually won the election?
Makes sense to me, I am always ready to believe the worst about people’s motives!

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