DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:23,378)

Now wasn’t that refreshing! Sellers drove the Dow Industrials 724 points lower on Thursday, displaying unaccustomed boldness and panache that perfectly matched the spirit of the headline I’d sent out to subscribers the night before:  Stocks Look Primed to Plummet on a Dearth of ‘Good’ News.  And there is even more good news for those who had begun to despair of the possibility that sanity would ever return to the stock market. The next dose of sanity — call it a second spoonful of castor oil — is all but guaranteed to knock the Dow Industrials down to at least 22,822, a Hidden Pivot target that lies 1135 points below today’s close. (Note: If that number is exceeded by more than a few points, keep 22,544 in mind as an alternative.)  A bounce from either will almost surely be tradable, and I don’t foresee this selloff exceeding the lower number, at least not before the Indoos have rallied sharply enough to suck everyone back in. _______ UPDATE (March 23, 6:48 p.m.): Today’s plunge left the Indoos in good shape to achieve the target(s) identified above. I strongly expect a tradeable bounce from very close to either number, or perhaps from both. _______ UPDATE (March 26, 11:52 p.m.):  Bulls shouldn’t get too excited by today’s nearly 700-point upthrust.  Actually, if it continues for another 853 points, the Dow would become a ‘mechanical’ short.  Here’s the chart. _______ UPDATE (March 27, 10:18 p.m.):  Just one small change — an upward adjustment to 22,856 in my minimum downside target. (The alternative target is now 22,551  – seven points higher than the original.) ________ UPDATE (April 2, 2:04 p.m.): I now prefer the 22,251 target flagged above, mainly because of the precise bounce a month ago from its associative midpoint pivot, 24,176. We should still look for a bounce from 22,856 nonetheless — and use it as a minimum downside projection for now. The Dow is off 717 points at the moment, still well above the higher target but not unthinkable for…today.

  • Oldman March 22, 2018, 10:49 pm

    Classical chartist Peter Brandt agrees. He notes that the decline on Monday in the Dow futures completed a rising wedge pattern. and today’s decline on the 4-hour chart completed a H&S top pattern. A wedge will usually retest the low point of the wedge — in this case 23088. After that his targets are 21980 and 21350.