The futures finished well off their lows Monday, but that didn’t negate the short sale that was triggered at the green line (click on inset).  We’ll wait for a ‘mechanical’ signal before we jump aboard, but we can still use the 2631.88 midpoint pivot shown as a minimum downside target for the near term. This differs by less than a point from a downside target given here last week. We should also remain open-minded to the possibility that shorts will shoot themselves in the foot yet again, chasing this brick above the 2807.25 peak recorded on March 13.  That would be the fourth time they’ve stopped themselves out by exceeding a high recorded since early February’s mini-crash. Otherwise, a plunge to the red line can tell us with a high degree of confidence whether the weakness begun in the final days of 2017 is the start of a bear market or just a garden-variety correction.  The former would become more likely if the initial breach of the red line is decisive. And if the red line were to be exceeded via a selling gap, that would raise the odds that a bear market had begun to about 75%, in my estimation. ________ UPDATE (March 20, 7:21 p.m. EDT):  An inconsequential day, it changed nothing said above. ______ UPDATE (March 21, 7:34 p.m.): And now, yet another.