Ordinarily I wouldn’t make too much of the E-Mini’s failure on Tuesday to reach the 2816.50 target shown, but it’s worth mentioning for two reasons. For one, the pattern that produced the target is so clear and compelling that even a shortfall of two or three ticks should be taken as a warning sign.  And for two, I’ve gotten so accustomed to predicting higher and higher prices for this vehicle over the years that I am being extra careful about getting sandbagged when the broad averages finally do head sharply lower for more than the usual day or two. I am not predicting that this about to happen, but we’ll at least give bears the benefit of the doubt for the moment. To be specific, I’ll note that a further decline touching 2720.00 would make the June contract no worse than an even-odds bet to continue down to at least 2632.75. ________ UPDATE (March 14, 6:35 p.m. EDT): So far so good.  If an avalanche is imminent, today’s moderate weakness left plenty of room for sellers to develop a full head of steam by week’s end or early next. (Of course, a Sunday night ‘Pearl Harbor attack’ should always be viewed as a significant possibility.)  From a psychological standpoint, I like the fact that shorts betting on the ability of several important peaks recorded since early February’s plunge to cap the rally have been stopped out no fewer than three times. _______ UPDATE (March 15, 6:24 p.m.): Today’s sleep-inducing price action changed nothing in my outlook, other than somewhat reducing the odds that a serious decline will get under way before the weekend. Even so, if you’re going to take a position home over the weekend, I’d suggest a small short rather than a long — just to make things seem interesting.  This bet would be a lottery ticket, so don’t risk any more than you can afford to kiss good-bye.