BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:8827)

I stopped covering bitcoin a couple of months ago simply because it became boring. The wild swings of yore made it fun to trade for a while, and subscribers may recall that we did pretty good at it. But bitcoin has settled into a rut, bringing out the worst in those who once adored it; now they delight in kicking it while it’s down. A recent headline at Bloomberg.com captured their feisty turn toward disrespect: Bitcoin Is Worthless, Bubble May Pop Soon, Allianz Global Says. And here’s another, from a seer who discerns only dark clouds on the horizon: Bitcoin’s ‘Death Cross’ Looms as Strategist Eyes $2,800 Level. I could make a technical case for $1800 myself, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the eventual bottom is even lower than that. But why bother?  It’d just be an educated guess, and no one would trade it anyway. But let me be clear: I am not looking for bitcoin’s demise, but rather for a second-wind rally that eclipses the old highs.  In the meantime, cryptocurrency’s flights of fancy will be subdued and limited, mainly because of the heavy losses suffered by hoards of amateurs, dabblers and other speculators, particularly early adopters. In at prices below $500, they figured they couldn’t lose when the ‘cryptos’ soared above $10,000.  Some bought more bitcoin on the way up and at its heights. It is the very real damage they suffered on the way back down to $5900 that is weighing on bitcoin at the moment and which will continue to hold bulls in check. ________ UPDATE (April 1, 5:08 p.m. EDT): Bitcoin has been bound for the $4509 target since January, notwithstanding the powerful bull-trap rally in February. I wouldn’t touch it till it gets down there. _______ UPDATE (April 3, 7:12 p.m.): How high would $BRTI need to rally to warrant our serious attention?  Answer: To 9885, just above a peak recorded March 12 on the way down. _______ UPDATE (April 19, 9:56 p.m.):  Just as I was about to remove waaaay-too-boring bitcoin from the touts list, I noticed that $BRTI is in a no-brainer rally to exactly 8854.66. One other thing to notice is that the stock could have been bought ‘mechanically’ on either of two pullbacks to the green line. Sorry for falling asleep at the wheel, but that doesn’t mean you can’t still paper-trade this one, especially if you need convincing that certain ‘mechanical’ trades can yield a significant edge. ________UPDATE (April 22, 9:26 p.m.): Surprise surprise. BRTI opened on a short-squeeze gap Sunday that hit 8964, 110 points above our target. Since then BRTI has oscillated above and below the target, slavishly returning to it as buyers impatiently await fresh inspiration.

  • Oldman March 19, 2018, 12:41 am

    The declines on Mar 10 and Mar 14 established a H&S failure as the “classical chartist’s choice for labeling on the daily chart. This pattern suggests a target of 3089 which is just 17 points shy of the midpoint between the P2 and D targets. (P3 anyone?)