I’ve been projecting a potentially important high of 3.112% for T-Notes, but the recent decline in rates from a 2.936% peak a week ago has steepened, hinting of a potentially important turn. This is still more than a little speculative, since the downtrend halted today at the exact, 2.786% midpoint pivot of the pattern shown. However, a two-day close beneath it would all but guarantee a further decline in rates to the 2.717% target shown. If that crystal-clear ‘hidden’ support gets smashed as well, it would shorten the odds that we are witnessing the resumption of the decades-long bull market in long-term Treasurys. _______ UPDATE (April 1, 5:08 p.m.): Yields are likely to fall to at least 2.717%, the Hidden Pivot level flagged above. If it’s decisively breached we could expect more slippage down to 2.689, with the likelihood of a scalp-able rally or a possible short-term low from very close to that number. ________ UPDATE (April 2, 6:45 p.m.): Yields bottomed today precisely at the 2.717% target provided above. I expect the 2.689 target to be achieved as well, but a rally above 2.790% would negate it. _______ UPDATE (April 4, 8:04 p.m.): Today’s rally surpassed the point ‘C’ peak of the pattern I’d used to project a 2.689 low. This is bullish price action, but we’ll need to see how many more peaks the rally can exceed before we can get a good ‘read’ on it. The next significant hurdle lies well above, at 2.854.
