Stocks ratcheted higher Thursday, taunting bears to short each new peak as the day wore on. We tried once ourselves, using a 2721.50 target in the E-Mini S&Ps that in retrospect was probably a little too obvious. The eventual top occurred at 2725.00, but the shallow pullback that followed would make any bear nervous about trying again. Still, with $70 a barrel starting to look like support rather than resistance in the oil patch, bears shouldn’t give up hope that the global economy is headed for a smackdown.
Here’s an astute observer who agrees: “Seneca,” who posts regularly at Rick’s Picks. “There are several triggers in place,” he wrote, “but mid-May we are going to see a larger shift that will combine all of them for lower equity pricing. This will confirm that the long bull market has been killed.” Nor will the bull’s death be subtle, he says. More like a “lighthouse beam” from afar. “America has had a great shift, and it [will be announced] very soon.” For starters, notes Seneca, we’re about to experience a 15% fall in the Dow Industrials that will bring the blue chip index close to a “cave-in” number. This is a good time, he says, to sit back and observe. And so we shall — with as much objectivity as we can bring to a waiting game that has grown more than a little tiresome.