ESU18 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:2708.25)

The futures are good bet to fall at least to the 2667.63 ‘midpoint Hidden Pivot’ shown. Sellers tripped a theoretical short sale at 2731.81, pounding their way past this threshold with such force that it took a further fall of 30 points before they could pull out of the dive. The short squeeze that ensued was relatively feeble, recouping but a third of what had been lost since Sunday night. Bear in mind that a decisive breach of the 2667.73 pivot could send this brick all the way down to 2539.25 in search of traction. That would be equivalent to a nearly 2000-point fall in the Dow from current levels. Permabears should resist the urge to close out short positions completely, since even a single contract retained from these levels for a swing at the fences could be worth as much as $9000 per. Whatever happens, I’d suggest keeping your focus on minor, abcd downtrends if you want to gauge the strength of the selling in real time. Monday’s selling, by smashing our ‘d’ targets the whole way down, telegraphed not only the exceptional nature of the day’s decline, but yet more weakness to come. ______ UPDATE (June 26, 6:17 p.m. EDT): It was slim pickings for bulls and bears alike as the futures ratcheted higher within a narrow channel.  The pattern shown tripped a ‘conventional’ sell signal, but two others before it would have produced losses. I’ll recommend staying on the sidelines unless you don’t mind work-intensive ‘camouflage’ set-ups. That may be the best option unless the futures tiptoe up to around 2746.00 to set up a possible ‘counterintuitive’ short._______UPDATE (June 27, 9:37 p.m.): A relative newcomer to the chat room who goes by ‘Huckle’ spotted — in real time —  the luscious ‘counterintuitive’ short shown in this chart. I green-lighted the trade and did it myself, tracking its progress intraday. However, I will establish a tracking position only if I hear from two subscribers who used the CI set-up to get short. In any event, half of any position established should have been covered by now.