GCQ18 – August Gold (Last:1254.60)

Gold’s breach of the 1267.40 target we’ve been using as a minimum downside objective has brought the prospect of yet more misery into focus. Specifically, I am now suggesting that you use the 1235.90 Hidden Pivot shown as a minimum downside objective for August Gold. I particularly like this ‘hidden’ support because the pattern itself is so gnarly. We’ve learned over time that such patterns are the ones that work best, since their provenance is so obscure — even to those used to seeing so-called Gartley 1-2-3 patterns. Traders should note that a rally to the green line would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short in theory; otherwise we should expect to see the August futures make their way to 1235.90, at least. As always, an easy breach of so compelling a target would portend even lower prices. I still doubt that gold will fall below $1,000, although that will be scant comfort to bulls who have experienced the acute disappointment of the last two months. _______ UPDATE (June 26, 6;57 p.m. EDT): The 1235.90 target remains not just valid, but compelling. However, the 1253.80 target of the lesser pattern shown in this chart also looks capable of generating a bounce, possibly a tradeable one. _______ UPDATE (June 27, 12:29 p.m.): The futures have reversed sharply, rallying $3.60 so far from within 50 cents of the 1253.80 target flagged above. If two or more subscribers used it to bottom-fish, I will provide tracking guidance, so please let me know in the chat room. You should take a partial profit now if you bought more than one contract.  _______ UPDATE (June 27, 9:51 p.m.): Chat-roomers reported doing some profitable bottom-fishing by playing the 1253.80 target for a bounce, but I haven’t established a tracking position because this brick subsequently slipped below the support. When it does so decisively, you can bet the futures will be headed down to at least 1235.90.