Ricks Picks

Why a Strong Dollar Won’t Hurt the U.S. Economy


How will the U.S. economy, particularly exports, cope with a rising dollar? Pretty well, we should expect. Even though a strong dollar will create drag for U.S. companies geared to selling abroad, there are reasons to doubt that it will slow the steady trek higher this summer that I’ve projected for U.S. stocks.  For one, investors have been discounting a strengthening dollar all along, and it is already baked in the cake. And for two, it will rev up domestic consumption of imports.  Granted, the lion’s share of the proceeds will go back to Canada, Europe and Asia. But U.S. vendors — of everything from cars to anchovies — will take their cut, and that should be sufficient to provide a net boost to an economy that has continued to chug along. Incidentally, my target projection for the Dollar Index, currently trading for around 94.04, is 96.43 — a pretty big move percentage-wise.  This is corroborated by a technical pattern I’ve flagged to subscribers on the Rick’s Picks home page tonight. There is an unusually good trading opportunity in the offing, but without going into the details, it makes me even more confident about the dollar’s continued rise.

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none June 4, 2018, 8:17 pm

The DX 3 year evening star pattern, has in 2018 broken its 3 year low ago level. This suggest a test of the 5 year ago level and more so a 10 year low ago level to be tested and broken.

The 3-4 month DX rally is a counter trend of the new longer turn trend as in 2003, with lower pricing ahead. Today the DX market has traded the same price as in early May 2018 and it is testing ‘overhead supply’ seen at these levels of the last 2-3 year old floor points. Much effort with little results towards the upside over the last 20 trading days.

Both longer term ‘lower’ interest rates and ‘lower’ DX pricing are in play, this being in the last month or so a turning point in both markets.

Observing a new all time high in JYP (132.0000), and even more so a ‘Japanese Military Yen’ (JMY) should be analog with the coming changes ahead.

Have a great evening tonight Rick.

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