A Burst of Exuberance Is Coming

My latest update for the E-Mini S&Ps calls for a move shortly to new all-time highs, with a corresponding 800-point rally in the Dow Industrials that would fall just shy of a record. This burst of exuberance may seem all but inevitable now, but there were reasons to doubt that it would occur when a global tariff war threatened to erupt a few months ago. The threat has since receded, and it now appears that China will follow Europe’s constructive lead in reconciling trade differences with the U.S. Looking at a longer-term picture, a move away from tariffs globally — which is what Trump evidently intends — would support much higher prices for equity shares, even in a Europe that has grown dangerously dependent on Germany’s economic strength to carry the day.