Shades of Irving Fisher

Here’s a Bloomberg headline that should scare the hell out of permabulls: ‘World-Beating U.S. Stocks Show No Sign of Falling Back to the Pack’.  It’s the ‘Show No Sign’ part of this attention-grabber that seems fraught with hubris — so much so that we shouldn’t be surprised if the stock market were to begin imploding as soon as…tomorrow? Dr. Irving Fisher, an eminent professor in his day, achieved eternal notoriety with the observation, just before the 1929  crash, that the stock market had reached ‘a permanently high plateau’.  Has anything you’ve heard or read lately recalled Dr. Fisher’s kind of optimism? If so, please drop me an email so that I can share it with readers.  In the meantime, I’m going to read Fisher’s work, The Debt-Deflation Theory of Great Depressions and report back to you. It seems astounding to me that a renowned economist steeped in the theory of deflation could have failed to see what was coming. The book was written after the crash, in the throes of the Great Depression, but I have to assume that the ideas it expounds took shape in the professor’s mind before that fateful autumn of 1929. While he may have learned the lessons of history, it would appear that the rest of us are about to repeat them.

  • Rich August 15, 2018, 9:38 pm

    Kuddles on Hannity today

    Talking repatriation and global capital flow to safe haven USA, with GDP as high as 5.8 %, saying Trump working to a tariff-free world.

    [Do 96 M Americans work anymore?]

    Just for fun, we have some quick orders in to Buy DIA, QQQ, SPY, TSLA below the market.

    Death of a Nation loud.

    • Rick Ackerman August 15, 2018, 9:59 pm

      “Death of a Nation loud”. That is a great line, Richard. I hope all is well with you. RA

  • John Jay August 15, 2018, 4:18 pm

    With Central Banks world wide flagrantly buying each others stocks and bonds with impunity, nothing is going to Crash the US Markets without their ok.
    The “Fix” has been in since Easy Al bailed out LTCM. TARP was Hank P sending an offer to Congress that they “Couldn’t Refuse.”

    “Suddenly, I realized I had made a terrible mistake!
    I joined the wrong mob!”
    Lucky Luciano

    Charley Lucky would know, that’s for sure!

    LOL!

  • none August 15, 2018, 5:36 am

    I had never observe the DXY cash market open towards its futures as what had happen Sunday evening. This was an array of a dislocation one could see.

    Markets in many sectors are having so much effort with so little results (Wyckoff), leadership has been in well over a year even more just a handful of issues. The volume now seeks the lowest of the year but the word ‘momentum’ is subject to be use as a roaring bull market ever in history.

    ….A much more important note, as we step back and observe the days when a Trump refuse to shake hands with others because of germs and such. Interesting how the dirt rubs in rather than washes off now.

    Have a great day Rick.