SIU18 – September Silver (Last:14.870)

Today’s chart is intended to stretch the bearish imagination of subscribers who seem to think silver bulls have been beaten up badly enough already. That kind of hopefulness appears to be popular in the chat room, and so it’s probably a good time for me to introduce a 9.35 target that has technically sound underpinnings. It may seem to go against all logic, but at least from a technical standpoint such an unsettling outcome is hardly unthinkable. The pattern shown has a point ‘B’ low that is manifestly not ‘sausage’, and that is one reason why its target should be taken seriously. Today’s dip beneath the midpoint pivot is not conclusive, but neither would I describe it as slight, considering the clarity of the picture. Some of you who are more familiar with the Hidden Pivot method may be hopeful that the futures will take a big ‘counterintuitive’ leap from somewhere near the 2016 low. The chart holds little promise for that, however, since the last big rally — the one capped by the 20.835 high two years ago — failed to exceed any significant prior peaks. ________ UPDATE (August 27, 8:16 p.m. EDT): Even on the intraday charts, Silver’s rally off the 8/16 low still looks very unimpressive. I’ll set the snooze alarm for 15.110, since that’s when the move would become slightly interesting.