Despite the rising drumbeat from Silver bulls in the chat room, I promised to ignore such noise and go strictly by the charts. In that regard, price action in the September contract stinks. I’ll need more evidence before I ask aloud, “What were we thinking!?” But based on Thursday’s failure of a minor rally to reach its 15.745 target, it is not too early to ratchet up the skepticism. Admittedly, this is like calling the electoral vote in Pennsylvania 20 minutes after the polls close. But we’ve been had so many times by fake-out rallies that we can ill afford to cling hopefully to the one begun a week ago. I’ll turn on a dime if the futures demonstrate a little good faith, presumably with a strong bounce from 15.350, a midpoint support on the hourly chart (A=15.885 on 7/17). But failing that, a further fall to at least D=15.00o will become all too likely. ______ UPDATE (Jul 31, 7:40 p.m.): Progress to the upside has been so labored that it’s hard to imagine Silver futures taking off. Whatever they’re about to do, we’ll continue to fight off sleep for the time being. _______ UPDATE (August 7): Never short a quiet tape, as the saying goes. Silver futures are so quiet these days that one could fall into a trance watching them too closely. So we don’t get caught unawares, I’ve set a screen alert at 15.640. A print there would exceed an ‘external’ peak recorded July 31, turning the hourly chart bullish.
