AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:213.33)

Although a fall to a 208.04 target I’d drum-rolled here Friday looked like a no-brainer, bulls had other designs. The result was a weak mechanical-short signal that we can ignore for trading purposes, even as we prepare for the drop to 208.04 that’s implied. Let’s also allow for a bullish reversal, but with the bar set high — i.e., above the 227.27 peak corresponding to the point ‘A’ of the pattern shown in today’s chart. Were that to occur, the only bullish pattern that makes sense to me would be this one, which implies minimum upside to p=233.86 (click here for chart). That’s the first time I’ve broached that target, but we should take it seriously because Apple is the most valuable company on Earth._______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 5:10 p.m.): Lest AAPL’s big but tedious swings put us in a trance that causes us to miss a bullish breakout if it comes, I’ve lowered the bar to 224.50This chart shows why. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 6:48 p.m.): After plummeting for most of the day, the stock trampolined from just beneath my longstanding target at 208.04.  My guess is that sellers are spent for the moment. However, the fact that they overshot such a clear and compelling Hidden Pivot support even slightly implies more weakness ahead. Here’s a fresh chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 9:23 p.m.): Today’s price action felt like accumulation, but if DaBoyz should surprise by feinting lower in the early going, hitting the 208.81 midpoint support shown in this chart, be prepared to buy some expiring 220 calls for a leveraged play. If you do buy them, offer half to close for twice what you’ve paid, g-t-c.