DJIA – Dow Industrial Average (Last:24,984)

Expect the “other shoe” to drop this week, culminating in a tradeable bounce from within inches of the 24,997 midpoint Hidden Pivot shown. Even if not, we are bound to get a revealing picture soon of a bull market now in its tenth year and presumably tiring. If the weakness we saw last week was the start of a C-D leg of a bearish ABCD correction from October 3’s all-time high (26,951), we might expect it to continue at least to the 24,997 “hidden” support noted above.  If the support gets crushed, we can assume that a further fall of 820 points to 24,177 is under way. Alternatively, there’s a chance buyers could temporarily turn things around next week and push the Dow above C=25,817. But don’t expect the effort to produce a new all-time high. More likely is that any such rally would set up a C-D plunge from a higher level. In the meantime, I will keep this tout publicly viewable so that you can follow whatever changes in the technical picture may be warranted._______ UPDATE (Oct 22, 5:47 p.m.): No change in my bearish outlook, but here’s a chart you can use that shows two price points that would flash, respectively, a “yellow alert,” and a “red alert” just ahead of a short-covering panic._______ UPDATE (Oct 23, 10:23 p.m.): The powerful bounce that ended the day did not negate the bearishness of the decisive breach of the 24,997 pivot mentioned above. In fact, a rally to x=25,407 would trigger a ‘mechanical’ short, stop 25,817. Click here for the chart — and stay close to the chat room for real-time guidance, since there are good ways to get short in companionable vehicles with risk under very tight control._______ UPDATE (Oct 24, 7:30 p.m.): The Dow still looks bound for the 24,177 downside target given above. Here’s a fresh chart that shows its progress._______ UPDATE (October 25, 9:32 p.m.): As violent as today’s reversal was, it did not alter the 24,177 target given above. Please note, however, that a rally to the green line (25,407) would NOT trip a ‘mechanical’ short, since it will have come from a too-low bottom.