Ricks Picks

Rising Yields Darken the Economic Picture


Yields on Treasury debt took a big leap on Wednesday toward some longstanding targets (see TYX and TNX touts below), adding yet another dark cloud to the Fed’s preternaturally sunny picture. The central bank’s narrative is that the economy is strong enough to weather more rate hikes, but the banksters seem not to realize that the housing and auto sectors are ready to tank with just one more turn of the screw. A chat-room denizen who builds homes noted today that the 150-basis-point rise in 30-year mortgage rates off their lows amounts to about $75 per month for each $100,000 of debt. This has had a significant impact on the housing market, he said, starting with a collapse of canary-in-the-mine homebuilder stocks that began six months ago. Higher rates are also starting to take a toll on auto sales and leases — especially the latter, since they were explicitly designed to allow Americans to drive more car than they can afford. Toss in a sharp rise in car sticker-prices over the last two years, and it’s not hard to see why the used-car market is so strong.  Something’s got to give, since prices for stocks and bonds cannot continue to move in opposite directions, as they have been doing, indefinitely.

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none October 4, 2018, 10:07 am

THE TRUMP PROPHECY is an inspirational message of Hope, highlighting the vast beauty and greatness of The United States, its electoral process and concludes by asking a panel of world leaders to respond to a few questions like: What does it mean to “make America great again?” How does a healthy American economy affect world economics? What does the current US administration mean to the middle east and specifically Israel? How does a strong US military affect the world climate for peace?



As, other films listed below this would suggest the ‘Topping out on Trump’, as ‘what is obvious is obviously wrong’. The mania in place is as a parabolic curve looking for a very steep correction and all things ‘involve’ with the Trump mania with the parabolic climb will in turn correction and crash, as they always do.

The Day the Bubble Burst (TV Movie 1982) – IMDb
Directed by Joseph Hardy. With Blanche Baker, Franklin Cover, Richard Crenna, Dana Elcar. A fictionalized account of how the 1929 stock market crash. Take note this was a major stock market bottom for decades to come. Not shown in the moive but on TV only, as the audience was larger then.

There Will Be Blood (2007)
A story of family, religion, hatred, oil and madness, focusing on a turn-of-the-century prospector in the early days of the business. Won 2 Oscars. Another 106 wins & 136 nominations.
Price of CL was 100.00 and top out at 150.00+/-
Have a great day Rick.

John Jay October 3, 2018, 9:18 pm

Rising rates?
Hey, no problem!
You can bet the Big Banks can, and will, dust off their tried and true solutions!
Remember 5 year, interest only, balloon payments, NINJA loans, nothing down, 125% LTV, etc.?
They liked it once; they’ll love it twice!
When it all collapses again, just throw a TARP over the corpse!

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The consistent accuracy of Rick Ackerman’s forecasts is well known in the trading world, where his Hidden Pivot Method has achieved cult status. Rick’s proprietary trading/forecasting system is easy to learn, probably because he majored in English, not rocket science. Just one simple but powerful trick -- managing the risk of an ongoing trade with stop-losses based on ‘impulse legs’ – can be grasped in three minutes and put to profitable use immediately. Quite a few of his students will tell you that using ‘impulsive stops’ has paid for the course many times over.

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