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Why the Party Is Over


Another brutal day for bears. Be sure to check out my latest tout for AAPL, since, more than any other stock on the planet, it will determine whether the bull market is in fact dead. I find it extremely difficult to imagine why this would not be the case, considering that the Wall of Worry has grown lately to surpass Mt. Everest in height. Read this insightful column from the Wall Street Journal‘s Walter Russell Mead if you want a big-picture perspective on why the party is over. Mead isn’t concerned so much with earnings that have peaked, a strong dollar, rising interest rates or even an incipient real estate collapse as he is with a tectonic shift in geopolitics. “The world has entered a new, complicated and dangerous era of nationalist competition,” he notes — one that trumps market forces that have been ascendant over the last 30 years. This column is a must-read.

Please do not ask trading questions!

  • none November 1, 2018, 11:04 am

    May 21, 2018… The deal between the Obama’s and Netflix was widely criticized at the time, with some pointing to the excessive nature of it – it could be worth up to $50 million – and the fact that the deal was spearheaded by big donors of Obama and former administration officials.

    The May all time high in NFLX was 423.00 and today now down 40%.

    ….Barack and Michelle Obama are using their new roles as movie and TV producers to open up a new front on their arch-nemesis, buying the rights to a best-selling author’s portrayal of the chaotic, early days of the Trump transition and administration.

    The Obama’s along with the entire Dem Party may be observing a collapse, as to analog the move into NFLX by the highest members of the DEM party (The Obama’s) states the public and the markets trend has turn sour on both.

    The 40% decline after a Parabolic move upward in the stock seems to observe an entire retracement of the excessive Obama years of easy everything going bone dry.

    Long term support may be seen in ‘years ago’ 3, 5, 10 the 3 year ago low itself is at 40.00 level a 90% decline. This would also suggest a 90% drop in the Obama’s and DEM Party fanfare.

    The Obama’s had have the greatest upward move in wealth at the executive level in American history, coming in with a net worth of 200k from owning a home by lending practices of a Russian Mafia associate. And, then exiting the highest executive branch level with a net worth of 20 million +/- on a 500K payroll.

    This may be taken as an analog with government itself moving towards a different era, as a long term top of excessive in overall government hitting a high and then crash.

    Again have great day….Rick.

  • John Jay November 1, 2018, 12:19 am

    I agree about the geopolitical angle.
    The future now belongs to the nations with the tightest border controls, and the most rapid, ruthless deportation policies.
    In our case, from the Rio Grande to Tierra del Fuego there are a billion people, all of them living in failed states. If we do not get real ugly, real soon, we will be swamped, Camp of the Saints style!
    It is obvious to me that the Dimocrats and the RINOs do not have this fact clearly in mind.
    To add a little twist to Captain Queeg’s exclamation on the bridge of the foundering Caine: “We’re in a Demographic Typhoon, do you want the ship to go down?”


  • none October 31, 2018, 8:46 pm

    President Trump on Wednesday said that the number of military troops deployed to the southern US border could be as high as 15,000 – more than the 14,000 deployed in Afghanistan – as he vowed not to allow people from the “very dangerous” caravan to enter the country.

    “Nobody is coming in. We’re not allowing people to come in,” said Trump.

    Speaking with reporters at the White House, Trump said “we’ll go up to anywhere between 10 and 15,000 military personnel on top of Border Patrol, ICE and everybody else at the border,” adding that the Untied States is “going to be prepared” and that migrants are “not coming into our country.”

    ——–In 1864 New York was the nation’s largest city and a world unto itself. When the Southern states seceded from the Union in 1861, some even called for New York City to follow suit and set itself up as a city-state, though it soon elected to stick with the North. At the time more than 814,000 people were crammed onto Manhattan Island, many of them living in near poverty around the slum of Five Points. A few small communities sprinkled the wilderness above 42nd Street, though far-sighted city fathers had purchased the land for Central Park back in 1856, and construction began as a relief project during the panic and depression of the following year. The water of the Hudson and East Rivers was clean enough that people could still swim in it, and they did.

    New York was also a city torn asunder by divergent politics. For three days in July 1863 it had erupted in protest against the draft, with lynch mobs running wild in the streets and rioters burning houses and businesses. Although the initial reports of more than 1,200 deaths proved exaggerated, as many as 118 people may have been killed before exhausted Union troops, marching straight from their victory at Gettysburg, put down the riot. In the aftermath, President Abraham Lincoln appointed Major General John Dix to oversee the military control of the city.

    Have a great day Rick.