Ricks Picks

AAPL Still the Stock That Matters Most


AAPL remains the stock that matters most, so bulls shouldn’t get their hope too high that the carnage is over. I still have an outstanding target down at 170.78, implying the iPhone-maker’s shares will fall a further $6, or 3.4%, before bulls can turn the stock around.  Seasonality and a dearth of sellers will weigh heavily in their favor when stocks resume trading on Friday, but any short squeeze that falls shy of 187.10, a benchmark equal to a minor external peak  recorded Monday on the way down, should be regarded as mere noise.

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none November 23, 2018, 9:24 am

Take note of the ZB/ZN contract highs only 5 handles away, suggesting that a move towards the panic 128-0 levels may not take place and the bond market rally will be in full force. That bonds alone with other inverse markets are well on their way towards ‘investment buying flow’ and long term rates have started their last major decline over the months and years ahead.

http://optionsellers.com appears to have lost all client money on short options strategies on energy markets.

…………….This is a collapse of equity in ‘writing’ options.

The trend in ‘writing’ (selling) energy NG/CL is to collect premium adding income on a monthly basic, once a market moves out of a trading range in a violent manner all that was made in the years before with the strategy, is lost and more.

This is a bust of the parabolic curve in thinking in ‘writing’ (selling) of energy options over the years.

This took place in the sock index options/futures during the 1987 stock market crash.

It suggest that the NG (breakout of the 20 trading week high)/CL (major recent 20 trading week ‘higher low’ support) is at a major inflection point towards upward prices in the weeks and months ahead.

——-In addition take note of SP/DJX contract low points these levels as towards the bond contracts highs are very near, suggesting that their are at an inflection point towards extreme volatility and that the barn door can open at a moment notices. Contract low points and high points are places that have become or been created by large ‘trading ranges’ which created complacency in market behavior. A place or interest level towards ‘writing’ options for income has become over extended during a period of time to collect premium. Going naked towards a market investment leaves one at the ‘mercy of the market’, and to take note from the events above investors not only have loss income on the original investment but are libel for added loses that have occur over the break out events.

You have SP/DJX, ZB/ZN GC/SI and ‘major currency’ (par in JYP) in such a place towards contract highs and lows. This is quite unusual.

Many will see the ‘parabolic curve’ bust of course in the lost of equity, but in reality it is the bust of sentiment of human behavior that a winning trend over months and years is intensify towards extreme loses of wealth.

Have a great weekend Rick.

John Jay November 22, 2018, 11:09 pm

Nice article at bloomberg.com about the flood of CL that is really ramping up in Texas.
CL dropped $1000 just now and bounced after piercing $53.
Talk of CL in the thirties
CL in the 30s would really be a boost to our economy, quite a problem for the KSA Royals that give away $s to keep the locals uninterested in regime change.
Can’t help but wonder if any Hedge Funds will implode after the CL plunge from $76 since October 4th.
Here is the link to that article:

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