Gold fell a further $13 on Friday, pausing just a few ticks above the 1206.70 target I’d sent out the night before. I say that the futures have merely paused because the void beneath that low looks like it wants to be filled. That would imply renewed weakness in the days or perhaps weeks ahead to at least 1190.50, the midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in the chart. Notice that the worst case over the next several weeks would be 1134.90, a crystal-clear target that lies 6% below. A decline of that magnitude would be discouraging, but it would still be a far cry from the sub-$1000 prices that some bullion bears have long predicted. A half-hearted sell-off would reflect the reality that weakness since 2011, when gold’s price hit a record high $1911, has been merely corrective of a long-term bull market begun in 2008 from $680.

Sellers Unable to Deliver a Coup de Grace

As persistent and vexatious as sellers have been since 2011, they have lacked the power to deliver a coup de grace. While it’s conceivable that gold could eventually fall below $1000, there are no strong indications on the long-term chart that this is likely.  Indeed, price action since early 2016 has been bullish and could support a push to as high as 1452.60. This would be in the context of a decade-long bull market that could ultimately reach 2278.20. Click here to see the picture. _______ UPDATE (Nov 14, 9:34 p.m.): A sharp push past 1225.40 would re-energize bulls for a possible shot at 1254.10. Here’s the chart.  _______UPDATE (Nov 15, 7:30 p.m.): This pattern looks extremely likely to work, meaning that a decisive stab past p=1216.30 will put December Gold on course for a run-up to exactly 1225.50. If so, that would set up a correction and then a further push past 1225.40.________ UPDATE (Nov 16): Subscribers reported making hay Friday when December Gold surged to within 50 cents of the 1225.50 target given in my last update. The pullback so far has been shallow, suggesting buyers are consolidating for another push. If it gets past the 1228.50 ‘external’ peak shown in this chart, that would re-energize bulls for yet more marauding. ________ UPDATE (Nov 20, 10:03 p.m.): Gold relapsed as it so very often does, but not before buyers spiked above the ‘external’ peak at 1228.50 noted above. That refreshed the bullish energy of the intraday charts, but I am making no specific recommendation at the moment. The pullback tripped a mechanical buy signal at 1223.20, stop 1218.40, but we’ll let it pass._______UPDATE (Nov 25, 5:08 p.m.): We’ll remain on the sidelines while gold continues to screw the pooch. The ‘mechanical’ trade noted above worked, incidentally, but only well enough to allow a partial profit at 1228.00. Traders would still be long half the position, using a break-even stop at 1218.40. Gold is the only vehicle I am currently watching whose ‘mechanical’ entries routinely fail, even when we use trade set-ups that perfectly meet all of our criteria.