GCZ18 – December Gold (Last:1239.10)

Comex futures have achieved the dubious distinction of being the only vehicle I trade that routinely fails to convert picture-perfect ‘mechanical’ trade set-ups into winners. That this has occurred in the context of a bullish pattern that goes back to mid-August suggests that buyers are too lazy and uninspired to shift a fundamentally positive chart into second gear. Well, at least gold is not moving in reverse.  But three steps up, two steps back has been a challenge to enthuse over. For now, and simply to chase boredom, you could try bottom fishing at p=1210.00 (see inset), with a 1210.10 bid, stop 1209.80. ______ UPDATE (Nov 28, 2:23 p.m.): The futures popped a $16 rally from 1210.50, four ticks above the 1210.10 bid I’d advised. Were we perhaps front-run by a Goldman mole who stays closely tuned to Rick’s Picks?  In any case, I see the rally as a fake, since it was caused by a dovish Fed headline that had already been thoroughly discounted. Powell seemed to be saying what we all knew — that the Fed might tighten the screw one more time in December, but that’ll be it. The market jumped not because of this supposed news, but because every trade desk boss on earth knew that every trade-desk competitor would reflexively pounce on stocks in response.______ UPDATE (Nov 29, 9:41 p.m.): If this were any vehicle other than gold, I’d say the 1234.30 rally target shown here is a lock-up to be reached. Let’s see._______ UPDATE (Dec 1): Friday’s weakness was disappointing but not fatal. However, any lower — specifically, a fall beneath 1216.80 — would negate the 1234.30 target. _______ UPDATE (Dec 3, 11:07 a.m.): Apologies. I somehow got too busy over the weekend to post this chart, which highlights an in-your-face rally target for the February contract at 1240.20 that precisely predicted today’s strong rally. The ‘mechanical’ trade worked, but I still don’t trust gold for this type of entry.