It’s 8:24 p.m., and traders have yet to guess the outcome of the mid-term elections. The E-Mini S&Ps are up a few points, suggesting the results are perceived on Wall Street as a coin toss at the moment. We can expect traders to do much better this time in discounting the possibility of a big win for the Democrats, since the day began without the brash certitude about a Hillary victory that characterized election night coverage in 2016. My hunch is that if the E-Minis are up by 18 or more points later this evening, it will correctly signal that the Republicans have held onto their majority in both houses. Conversely, if the futures are down by 18 or more points, that will tell us — again, correctly — that the Republicans have lost the House and possibly the Senate. There are some key Congressional districts causing index futures to fluctuate nervously as I write these words: Virginia’s 10th; Kentucky’s 6th; and Minnesota’s 3rd, to name just a few. Watch ’em and place your bets!
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Tuesday, April 23, 2019
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That damn gut, sometimes it reflects what we want, rather than what we should accept : ) “My gut feeling is that Republicans will win big, rebuking a mainstream media whose polls are just as fanciful as they were in 2016.”
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Whatever. But decent folk had to love that the mainstream media and three Democratic Senatorial candidates absolutely WERE rebuked for their sleazy, unprincipled stand against Kavanaugh. To drive home the point, Manchin — Kavanaugh’s only Democrat supporter — squeaked in. RA
The Dims get the House by a small margin.
The RINOs keep the Senate with an extra Senator or two.
Best case for us is Trump gets to add two more Supreme Court Justices.
No chance that DC crew is going to get the money out of Politics, bring the Legions back home,
or limit immigration to 100,000 of the world’s best and brightest per year.
The money spent on this election to buy control of the US Government is depressing, to say the least.
Oh well, Trump has a wry sense of humor, so perhaps when some obstructionist Federal judge rules he has to take in all the Caravan, Trump will ship the lot of them to that judges home town.
Then the judge came help them achieve the “Better Life” they are seeking.
Since 1946, there have been 18 midterm elections. Stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Every single one. That’s 18 for 18. Even though we’ve had every possible political combination in the past 72 years. Republican president with Democratic Congress. Democratic president with Republican Congress. Republican president and Congress. Democratic president and Congress.
Since 1946, stocks have risen an average of 17% in the year after a midterm. And if you measure from the yearly midterm lows, the results are even better. From their lows, stocks jumped an average of 32% over the next 12 months. For perspective, that’s more than double the average performance for stocks in all years. We’re also entering the third year of a presidential term, which is historically the strongest year for stocks.
…..I hesitate to give advice because every major single piece of advice I was given turned out to be wrong and I am glad I didn’t follow them. I was told to focus and I never did. I was told to never procrastinate and I waited 20 years for the Black Swan and it sold 3 million copies. I was told to avoid putting fictional characters in my books and I did put in Nero Tulip and Fat Tony because I got bored otherwise. I was told to not insult the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal, the more I insulted them the nicer they were to me and solicit Op-Eds. I was told to avoid lifting weights for a back pain and became a weightlifter: never had a back problem since.
If I had to relive my life I would be even more stubborn and uncompromising than I have been. One should never do anything without skin in the game. If you give advice, you need to be exposed to losses from it.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
============A very scary stat and chart on Global death rates. Military and Civilian death stats with a 15 year moving average in RED.
Military death rate from WW2 in BLUE.
……Both data points are at an extreme low level, suggesting a rebound and change in trend…..’4th turning’ always end in Global warfare, the chart suggest a contrarian view point that deaths rates are ready to rise to unheard levels as before.
Have a great day America and Rick too 🙂