It has been a while since I last updated this vehicle, which tracks interest rates on the U.S. Ten-Year Note. Long-term yields have been in an uptrend for the last 29 months that looks likely to continue. The most compelling reason to expect this is a run-up in early October to 3.248% that exceeded an important ‘external’ peak at  3.223% recorded back in 2011. Although the breach was slight, it was sufficient to generate a fresh, bullish impulse leg on the weekly chart. This usually augurs a continuation of the trend. I had raised the possibility here earlier that the upward spiral in long-term rates would be self-limiting because it would eventually choke off the U.S. economy. That is still logical, but the chart is saying rates will continue higher regardless of the state of the economy. Another interpretation is that the economy will get second wind, and that a recovery in the housing and auto sectors will renew upward pressure on rates. We shall see. But the bottom line is that rates are likely head higher in 2019._______ UPDATE (Dec 5, 6:03 p.m. ET): Yields on the 10-year have come down hard this week. While this has done no significant technical damage to the daily chart, it bears watching. A key trendline support lies just below, at around 2.87%. Let’s see whether it holds. Regardless, it would take a print below 2.717% to generate a bearish impulse leg on the weekly chart.