Although the stock appeared to be setting up a juicy ‘counterintuitive’ short a couple of weeks ago, it has yet to trigger. Instead, FB has worked its way lower in fits and starts, diminishing the ‘surprise factor’ that makes CI trades so appealing. I doubt that sellers are spent, given the stock’s punk performance on Friday when many stocks soared. However, I am no longer recommending the short trade, even as FB falls deeper into the gap created on January 31, when it was goosed mightily on strong earnings news. Since my long-term outlook for Facebook remains bearish, we will continue to look for opportunities to profit from its decline. We might even do some bottom-fishing if the trade sets up well. In any case, stay tuned._______ UPDATE (Feb 21, 6:14 p.m.): Today’s sinkage triggered the ‘counterintuitive’ short at 160.31, putting p=148.15 in play as a minimum downside objective. We’ll remain spectators for now, since the stock is very oversold and could pop at any time.______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 6:16 p.m.): Perhaps inspired by the successful distribution of AAPL shares, DaBoyz are working Facebook hard, moving it against a tide of negative news that eventually will send the stock below $100. They goosed it today strongly enough to leave shorts on the hook at the close. Let’s see how much higher the smart guys can waft this brick. _______ UPDATE (Feb 28, 10:08 p.m.): The smart guys have been unable to elevate the stock, which now looks bound for at least 158.28 (60-min, A=165.69 on 2/26). _______ UPDATE (Mar 4, 9:43 p.m.): Give them their due, the smart guys got Facebook to swim against the tide today, tripping a theoretical ‘buy’ signal in the process. This means we should use p=174.11 as a minimum upside objective for now._______ UPDATE (Mar 6, 10:25 p.m.): A leap on the opening bar got the stock within 54 cents of the 174.11 target. It’s still valid in theory, but FB would need to blow past it to put the 188.63 target in play. There’s an additional impediment at p2=181.37 that would become our minimum price objective above 174.11.
