David Stockman‘s new book could prove to be a very timely read. The title leaves no doubt what it’s about: PEAK TRUMP: The Undrainable Swamp And The Fantasy Of MAGA. Could he be onto something? In my view, Trump’s fall could come not merely because Congressional Democrats are investigating nearly everyone in his past and every business deal he has ever made. No, that has become pretty routine, and probably half the country has tuned it out completely. What seems even more threatening is the possibility that a recession that has been brewing for years will hit, critically undermining the President’s most credible and laudable claim — i.e., that he has been great for the economy.
For the moment, however. with the stock market poised to make new record-highs, the danger of a Trump implosion is relatively low. But if and when Wall Street’s exuberant, ten-year celebration tops out, it is going to bring these relatively good times to a wrenching end. This is very likely in my view, even if stocks are about to move into record territory. That would only set the hook for the most destructive and painful bull trap in recent history.
A Big, Fat Bubble
Stockman sees Trump as particularly vulnerable — as handing his head to his enemies on a platter — “because he has bombastically embraced the ‘big, fat, ugly bubble’ that he so accurately harpooned during the campaign.” Just so. Here’s a link to Stockman’s book promotion and a subscription to his daily commentary, Contra Corner. I’ve never marketed anything here before except my own service, but I happen to agree with his thesis and wanted to bring it to a wider audience. Read it and see for yourself why we should all be bracing for the worst.