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GOOG – Google (Last:1116.02)


Google was down a hellacious 112 points, or 9%, at Tuesday’s low, but the plunge did little damage to the bullish look of the weekly chart (click on inset).  The fact that this occurred after the stock had pushed above last July’s record high makes the selloff merely corrective rather than impulsive. It was attributable to a dour earnings report which suggested Google is losing ground in advertising to Amazon and Facebook. From the look of the chart, however, it seems predictable that the company will find a way to cope and get back in the race. Another thing to be inferred from the stock’s steep dive is that it was engineered by the same institutional wiseguys who have been buying it all along. They’ve created for themselves a fire-sale opportunity, and we should therefore look for GOOG to stabilize, presumably at somewhat lower levels, before the accumulation cycle begins anew.  Alternatively, the stock would need to fall a further 290 points (!), or 25%, exceeding the 894 ‘external’ low recorded last June, to turn the weekly chart bearish.  This seems unlikely, even after today’s heavy losses. _______ UPDATE (May 8, 8:58 p.m. ET): With GOOG struggling for altitude, I’ll note that any slippage could send the stock down to at least 1123.71, a midpoint Hidden Pivot support shown in this chart. It is associated with a ‘D’ target at 1056.68. _______ UPDATE (May 13, 2:33 p.m.): The stock has bounced $12 so far after bottoming at 1122.11, an inch below my minimum downside target. If a relapse crushes the target, that would imply more slippage to as low as D=1056.68._______ UPDATE (May 16, 4:14 p.m.): Bears have gotten squeezed hard for two straight days, but the pressure appears to have eased slightly with a close in the middle of Thursday’s range. The rally came within less than $3 of stopping out a mechanical short from 1157.28 that I did not recommend. Now, buyers would refresh the bullish energy of the daily chart if they can close this hulk above 1190.85. _______ UPDATE (May 19, 10:57 p.m.): The stock became a weak ‘mechanical’ short at 1157.28 last Wednesday, stop 1190.86, with a downside target at 1056.58 that was noted above._______ UPDATE (May 29, 5:48 p.m.): I did not explicitly recommend the short from 1156.28, but if you did the trade, half should be covered now at 1123 or lower.

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