Three weeks after I projected a fall to 53.60, Lyft has touched that number and gone as low as 52.78. The stock will have another chance to pick up support slightly below, at 52.27, a midpoint Hidden Pivot, but a decisive breach would put a 41.54 target in play. That would represent a 53% drop from the opening day high of 88.60 and a 21.5% drop from the current price of 52.90.
Uber is unlikely to fall as much percentage-wise after it begins trading on Friday simply because Lyft’s experience is certain to discourage the repetition of the wild excesses that greeted LYFT’s first day of trading on March 29. Uber shares are expected to open in the range $44-$50, representing a valuation of $80 billion to $90 billion. If they open in the middle of that range, near $47, a 21.5% drop over the next couple of months would bring it down to 37.13. These targets are just guesstimates, but you should jot them down anyway, since my strong hunch is that they WILL be achieved. _______ UPDATE (May 14, 8:09 a.m. ET): Uber has tanked nearly 20% since its IPO debut two days ago at 44.50. Morgan Stanley is taking heat for this, but only from investors who could have seen it coming with a little common sense and some technical analysis. The stock ended Tuesday in a moderate dead-cat bounce, but it should fall anew to at least 34.92 if my back-of-the-napkin calculations prove correct. _____ UPDATE May 19, 10:46 p.m.): Don’t believe the rally in either stock. It’s no surprise that the greedy dirtballs who held shares before they began to trade should want to distribute stock shortly thereafter, since they obviously got it wrong.