The futures have taken a powerful leap tonight, topping so far within easy distance of an ambitious, 1412.20 rally target we’ve been using for the last several weeks. Bloomberg and other bullion sources have not identified the catalyst at this hour, although it could be a statement from Trump that he believes he can replace Powell as Fed chairman. If this is in fact what has caused the spurt, T-Bonds have yet to register their disapproval. Regardless, August Gold would now trigger an old-style ‘mechanical’ buy if it pulls back to p=1342.70. The required stop-loss would be at 1319.50. (Trading room note this morning from Crusty: A ‘counterintuitive’ short would trigger on a pullback to 1346.70. We’ll reconcile this seeming paradox if such a drop occurs.) _______ UPDATE (Jun 20, 10:54 p.m. ET): August Gold has surged anew tonight, hitting 1415.40 so far. If it goes no higher, a drop to 1362.60 would signal a ‘counterintuitive’ short. I am not recommending the trade, but if it triggers, especially within the next day or two, that would raise the odds that this monster move in gold is about to turn into a bull trap. Alternatively, an easy push past 1415 would suggest the rally is not only real, but sustainable.
GCQ19 – August Gold (Last:1409.70)