I proffered a quite bullish target at 21,032 five weeks ago, but bitcoin seems in no hurry to get there. In fact, this CME vehicle, which reflects the best bid and offer in real time across many markets, tripped a ‘mechanical’ short at 10,081 on last week’s run-up to 10,667. We passed up the trade as unappetizing, but if it gets stopped out at 10,795 as seem likely, that would imply the uptrend’s three-week stall has ended. The weekly chart still says that a pullback to 7609 would offer an excellent, albeit increasingly unlikely, buying opportunity. More immediately, assuming the stop on the theoretical short is hit, BRTI should be presumed bound for at least 12,260, a midpoint resistance tracing back to the start of the bull cycle begun on June 9. _______ UPDATE (Aug 6, 10:00 p.m. ET): BRTI plunged $1103 today after topping an inch from the 12260 target. Are there any bitcoin traders out there who are paying attention to these targets? _______ UPDATE (August 11, 2:10 p.m.): Bitcoin has held its own after buyers were repelled by the 12,260 pivot shown in this chart. The rally did not make it to our sweet spot, but because the push was so robust, I’ll recommend a ‘mechanical’ buy on a retracement to x=10,675, stopped just below C=9090. _______ UPDATE (Aug 14, 9:56 p.m.): The trade triggered and feels scary as hell at the moment. That is the way good mechanical trades are supposed to feel, since our bid is placed at a level where most bulls have already been brutally shaken out by a steep selloff. This is just such a set-up, but we’ll hang with it nevertheless just to see how it goes. Bitcoin’s reputation for being able to flout the concerns of the real word is faltering as it joins in the selloff that engulfed the broad averages on Wednesday. ________ UPDATE (Aug 21, 10:03): Bitcoin looks like a good bet to stop out the mechanical trade. Its rally became balky over the last couple of days, telegraphing the weakness that has ensued. I am taking it off the home page for now, until it becomes interesting enough again to attract more of a following.
BRTI – CME Bitcoin Index (Last:10,057)