Ricks Picks

Fed Can Relax About Who Will Get the Blame

EST

Here’s the Fed at its most obtuse, as reported Wednesday in The Wall Street Journal: “Fed officials saw their move to cut rates last month as a recalibration rather than the start of a more aggressive easing cycle and were reluctant at their latest policy meeting to say how future moves would unfold.” Are these guys kidding, or what? This press-release bilge is right out of academia’s  May Day Parade handbook, and it has Wall Street’s “Kremlinologists” struggling desperately to decode “recalibration” and its implications for the U.S. economy. The word is intended to suggest that the quacks who determine monetary policy do so with scientific precision. In fact, they make it up as they go along and are now struggling to avoid blame when the stock market takes its inevitable fall. You have nothing to worry about guys. Trump’s aggressive stance on tariffs will be the story for generations to come, just as Smoot-Hawley is still blamed for tripping the country into the Great Depression.

Juicy Short Sale Ahead

It was odd for the Dow Industrials to tack on 240 points in spite of the news, and perhaps even crazy to extend the rally moderately in off-hours trading Wednesday evening. The flurry of short-covering responsible for the rally is being attributed to strong earnings reports from Target and Lowe’s. That was last quarter, though, and share buyers seem not to have considered what might happen next. Many companies, even those that have reported respectable numbers recently, are scaling back their forecasts. And just as profits are unlikely to expand much in Q3, the stock market is unlikely to hit new record highs, especially with corporate buybacks tapering off. Those highs lie about 5% above current levels for the Dow, and it’s not rocket science to discern that the blue chip average will be a juicy short sale somewhere between here and the July top. Join us at Rick’s Picks with a free trial subcription as we attempt to find that top with tea leaves, toad entrails and our own brew of technical analysis. [Note: Rick will be on holiday from August 23 to September 4. During that time, there will be no daily commentaries, although he will continue with timely updates as warranted at Rick’s Picks.]

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none August 22, 2019, 7:54 am

Debt Market
ZB targets:
184-12
193-30
204-10

Above are ZB future target projections, long term 30-year yield has already confirm a trade at the 1st 184-12 level. This is not the top but the crisis entry level.

Persons should be preparing for a dramatic turn on market events.

Continue the hammering Rick LOL, Have a great time.

John Jay August 22, 2019, 12:40 am

Kyle Bass sez………………………

“This is insane. The Japanese are going to keep going. The Chinese print money like it’s a national pastime today. Europe is going to restart QE.”
During an interview with CNBC, Bass exclaimed:
“We’re the only country that has an integer in front of our bond yields,”
“We have 90% of the world’s investment-grade debt. We actually have rule of law and we have a decent economy. All the money is going to come here.”

If you slightly modify his “Rule of law/Decent economy” with “For the uber-wealthy”, then his “All the money is going to come here” wise crack is exactly right!

What I have named the “Port Royal Effect”, has been in high gear with a low profile since the post WWII Operation Paperclip, which imported intellect instead of gold.
One conspiracy theory has it that the post WWII Marshall Plan was financed by sending confiscated Nazi gold right back over there to get that economy going again!

Well, whatever keeps the lights on over here until I float up to Valhalla is Jake with
this reporter!

LOL!

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