Ricks Picks

The Tariff-War Gift That Keeps on Giving


DaBoyz have goosed index futures Wednesday night on ginned-up news about trade talks resuming again in October. Raise your hand if you were unaware that the talks had stopped in the first place. Regardless, renewed ‘optimism’ about the outcome of the tariff war has once again sent shorts scrambling for cover. It has also reversed a two-day rally in gold, which has held up well despite having to swim upstream against the bullish mindset on Wall Street.  Check out my target for the E-Mini S&Ps (below) if you want to see how high the S&Ps can go over the next day or so. An easy move past the target would imply that there is still significant buying power percolating beneath the surface.

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none September 5, 2019, 9:32 am

Year 9 stats:

1. A year in which a bear market ends and a bull market begins. 1901, 1911, 1921.

2. The second year is a year of a minor bull market, or a rally in a bear market will start at some time. 1902, 1912, 1922, 1932.

3. Starts a bear year, but the rally from the second year may run to March or April before culmination, or a decline from the 2nd year may run down and make bottom in February or March, like 1933. 1903, 1913, 1923.

4. The fourth year is a bear year, but ends the bear cycle and lays the foundation for a bull market. Compare 1904, 1914.

5. The fifth year is the year of Ascension, and a very strong year for a bull market. See 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935.

6. The sixth year is a bull year, in which a bull campaign which started in the fourth year ends in the Fall of the year and a fast decline starts. See 1896, 1906, 1916, 1926.

7. Seven is a bear number and the seventh year is a bear year because 84 months or 840 degrees is 7/8ths of 90. See 1897, 1907, 1917, but note 1927 was the end of a 60 year cycle, so not much of a decline.

8. The eighth year is a bull year. Prices start advancing in the 7th year and reach the 90th month in the 8th year. This is very strong and a big advance usually takes place. Review 1898, 1908, 1918, 1928. (2008 did not follow this pattern, which is where a little real estate cycle knowledge was helpful in this instance.)

9. Nine is the highest digit and the ninth year is the strongest of all for the bull markets. Final bull campaigns culminate in this year after extreme advances and prices start to decline. Bear markets usually start in September to November at the end of the 9th year and a sharp decline takes place. See 1869, 1879, 1889, 1899, 1909, 1919 and 1929, the year of the greatest advances, culminating in the fall of that year, followed by a sharp decline.

10. Ten is a bear year. A rally often runs until March and April; then a severe decline runs to November and December, when a new cycle begins and another rally starts. See 1910, 1920, 1930.

Have a great day Rick.

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