The relentless upward drift of shares has crushed S&P volatility, which has been hitting record lows almost daily. There may be an opportunity here for us, as the chart makes clear. Specifically, the 19.15 target looks likely to produce a trend reversal sufficient to be tradeable. If VXX gets within 0.08 points of it on Monday, we’ll try to buy eight November 8th 22 calls. A price of 0.20 would be about right, but check the Trading Room, since I may need to adjust the bid on-the-fly. You can improvise your own strategy, but don’t bet more than you could afford to lose painlessly on a lotto ticket, since this bet is a longshot. I’ll note as well that there is a 19.82 downside target on the monthly chart that could reverse the downtrend. VXX closed slightly beneath it on Friday, but I didn’t notice the target until after the bell or I would have suggested buying a few call options to hold over the weekend. We might attempt this on Monday, but it will depend on how stocks open. ______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 5:06 p.m.): I still like 19.15 as a place to try bottom-fishing. We may have to improvise on-the-fly, however, so stay tuned to the chat room if VXX gets within 0.20 points or so of the target. _______ UPDATE (Oct 30, 9:01 p.m.): Big surprise, VXX is about to hit the 19.15 target. I’ll leave it to those of you who have seemed interested in VXX to improvise a bottom-fishing strategy, but don’t bet the ranch. A tradeable bounce “soon” from very near the target looks like a good gamble to me, but don’t take that as a guarantee. You should be feeling good already about having dodged the bullet by NOT getting long six points higher. _______ UPDATE (Oct 31, 6:24 p.m.): There was money to be made on the rally from Wednesday’s 19.44 low, but not much. I still expect a better bottom-fishing opportunity from within 0.08 points of the 19.15 target noted above.
VXX – S&P VIX Short-Term (Last:19.77)
