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Dow Move Above Some Big Obstacles Would Likely Clinch 30,000


The S&P mini-futures topped three ticks from an important rally target on Monday while the Dow missed a corresponding target by less than two hundredths of a percent. Is this the Mother of All Tops? Probably not, if for no other reason that we cannot expect to nail the top of a bull market that has been making record highs for more than a decade –especially when we are fixated on a price target that has been drum-rolled here for weeks.  Even so, those who shorted the E-Mini S&Ps at their intraday high reaped instant gains and could roll up even bigger profits if the high is not breached on Tuesday. My hunch is that it will be, but that significantly higher prices over the near term are unlikely in any event until after stocks have had a painful correction. It is not merely because important Hidden Pivot targets have been reached, but also long-term trendlines that stretch back years. Together they offer resistance that seems unlikely to give way easily, even if bulls marginally penetrate them over the next few days. If I am wrong and buyers blow past these impediments as though they did not exist, you can infer that the Dow is on its way to at least 30,000, a seven percent gain from current levels and what is sure to be fist-pumped on Wall Street as a milestone.

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