Gold has disappointed and bullyragged its most devoted fans for more than three months, but it could become an enticing speculative buy as it approaches a key low at 1418.90 recorded back in August. The bearish pattern shown is not the largest among several alternatives, but it shows promise nonetheless to deliver a tradeable bounce at or very near the pattern’s 1440.00 target. I’d prefer to initiate the trade via an rABC pattern, since that’s probably the least risky way to catch the falling javelin. If so, we’ll look at using A=1465.40 (from 12/3 at 2:00 a.m.) Stay tuned, however, since the set-up will depend on how easily the downtrend achieves 1440.00, assuming it does. ______ UPDATE (Dec 10, 9:12 a.m. EST): The futures are rallying moderately even though the S&Ps are slightly higher. This is unusual, so we’ll give bulls the slight benefit of the doubt. You can use this pattern to trade the move. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 9:07 p.m.): Zzzzzzzz. _______ UPDATE (Dec 11, 10:52 p.m.): The pop through p=1478.10 has made the February contract a good bet to reach the 1493.10 target shown. If there’s a pullback to X=1470.50 first, ideally in the first half of the session, it would trigger a mechanical buy, stop 1462.90. _______ UPDATE (Dec 12, 11:23 p.m.): How’s that for nasty? Even so, based on reports in the Trading Room, subscribers who got long for a shot at the 1493.10 target got out with a nice profit before the futures reversed precipitously. From a high just $1.50 shy of my target, they dove $36. Overall, the price action was neither bullish nor bearish, just nutty. Gold appears to be biding its time until the stock market cools off and the chimps turn their attention to ‘risk-on.’ ________ UPDATE (Dec 30, 5:47 p.m.): With the broad averages falling moderately, gold futures somehow managed to eke out a paltry gain of just 20 cents. The good news is that — knock on wood! — there have been no $20 swoons recently to demonstrate how nasty Comex futures can be while we wait patiently for them to achieve a modest Hidden Pivot rally target (not that any of you needed to be reminded that the risk of this happening is always present.)
GCG20 – February Gold (Last:1518.20)