USH20 – March T-Bond (Last:161^18)

The March contract impaled a Hidden Pivot resistance at 160^10 on Friday, all but clinching more upside over the short-to-intermediate term. The ABC pattern used to derive the target is so picture-perfect that we might have expected at least a stall within a tick or two of it. Instead, the futures exceeded the pivot decisively, then went on to close above it. Moreover, the apex of the spiky rally surpassed an even more daunting peak at 160^26 recorded in late October. It did so by only two ticks, but the amount of the overshoot is not important — only the fact that buyers pushed above it. (Elliott Wave chartists look at this the same way we do, always taking care to distinguish between impulsive and merely corrective moves.) The breakout occurred in conjunction with a similar, albeit more subtle, one in the dollar. Something has changed, that much is clear. ______ UPDATE (Jan 27, 9:45 p.m. EST): A powerful thrust extended Friday’s sharp gains.  Now, if the futures can push decisively past 162^12, a midpoint Hidden Pivot (30-minute, A= 159^10 on 1/24), they should be presumed bound for at least 163^24. _______ UPDATE (Jan 28, 8:25 p.m.): T-Bonds reversed sharply as stocks climbed, but their plunge should be viewed as corrective rather than impulsive because of what buyers had accomplished the day before (see above). Now, a pullback to 158^16 would trip a ‘mechanical’ buy, stop 155^00, predicated on a 168^29 target. _______ UPDATE (Feb 1, 10:30 p.m.): The futures took off without pulling back much, let alone to 158^16. However, Friday’s strong rally brought them to within an inch of a clear rally target at 164^00, so look for a pullback on Monday.  Alternatively, if buyers should easily brush this Hidden Pivot resistance aside, the March contract can be presumed headed to at least 165^06, the secondary Hidden Pivot of a pattern on the daily chart begun from 156^28 on 1/17/20. ______ UPDATE (Feb 5, 9:42 p.m.): The futures have sold off hard after peaking an inch above the 164^00 rally target noted above. The correction pattern shown in this chart implies that bottom-fishing at 160^16 would enjoy attractive odds. _______ UPDATE (Feb 6, 8:55 p.m.):  The futures bottomed a single tick below the 160^16 correction target flagged above, allowing anyone who bottom-fished there with a stop-loss as tight as two ticks to reap a gain of up to $1200 per contract on the strong rally that followed. It would catch fire if buyers can push above 162^20.

  • Robert Marshall January 27, 2020, 12:45 am

    Great stuff, optimism prevailing, you wrote, “…more upside over the short-to-intermediate term.” You haven’t give us the chart… So, how do you recommend proceeding to cash in on your highly likely forecast?\\

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    Where ya been, Robert?? Drop by the chat room and ask around. RA