The S&P 500 triggered a major sell signal today on a 112-point decline, putting in play the 3096.36 midpoint Hidden Pivot support (p) shown in the chart as a minimum downside target.  This is the third such signal in the last 14 months, but it should be presumed more likely to pan out because it occurred on a gap down through the green-line trigger price.  Although this should temper our enthusiasm for buying the dips, it has not negated the possibility of using a ‘counterintuitive’ setup to get long over the next three or four days. Here’s a piece of the chart taken from its right-hand edge that shows the relevant pattern. Today’s low occurred so close to some important bottoms recorded in December and January, that we can assume most traders and investors are very worried about a possible breakdown. Such fears are exactly what the ‘CI’ trade was designed to exploit and leverage. The details of this tactic are proprietary, but I will be sharing them in the Trading Room, so stay tuned if you’re interested. Regardless of whether the buy signal is triggered, the way the pattern plays out can give us a confident read on whether fear is about to supplant greed as the main force driving U.S. stocks. _______ UPDATE (Feb 25, 7:15 p.m. EST): Today’s steep selloff brought the S&Ps to within easy distance of the 3096.36 threshold where we would take at least a partial profit if the trade had been done with real money. Our interest is more on the analytical and predictive side, but I am hereby establishing a tracking position and will book a hypothetical gain if the 3096.26 pivot is hit.  This will allow us to assess trend strength as we normally would in any vehicle. Accordingly, if SPX hits 3096.36, we’ll cover half of the tracking position by buying two round lots. A further 25% will be covered at p2= 2947.77, and the remainder at D=2799.19. A drop to that last number would fall just shy of bear-market territory, reflecting a 17.5% drop from the record high recorded a week ago. _______ UPDATE (Feb 26, 7:20 p.m.): S&P index futures dipped to our profit-taking level last night, but the cash index, which trades only during the regular session, did not. I’ll track our short position as though we’ve made no adjustment. It will require an actual print at 3096.36 to take us out of half of the short we hold. _______ UPDATE (Feb 27, 8:57 p.m.):  The S&Ps are just shy of a second profit-taking level at p2=2948.56. If it’s hit we’ll still have 25% of the original position and a very substantial theoretical gain. The p2 pivot is a logical spot for an attempt to stop the bear, so we should pay close attention to any sign of a reversal on the lesser charts.