AAPL – Apple Computer (Last:293.16)

My latest commentary tees off on AAPL, reiterating my forecast for an eventual move below $100, but strictly speaking, Friday’s price action, nutty as it was, provided no technical basis for predicting that the stock is about to fall apart. It would take a plunge exceeding last Tuesday’s 278.20 low to generate a threatening impulse leg on the hourly chart, and although that’s hardly inconceivable, we’ll let the stock speak for itself before drawing any conclusions. A ‘mechanical’ buy would trigger at p=285.26, stop 278.65, but I’d suggest spectating just to familiarize yourself with this bold tactic for getting long/short where others fear to tread. _____ UPDATE (May 4, 9:40 p.m.): A deftly engineered plunge on Friday’s opening bar exhausted sellers, paving the way for a spectacular 12-point short-squeeze that has left bears off-balance as the new week begins. Monday’s action started out with similarly deceptive weakness, just not enough of it to bring the stock down to our infotainment bid at 285.26. The 305.08 target shown in the chart still obtains, but we can use a lesser Hidden Pivot at 302.19 as a minimum upside target for the near term (5-min, A=278.20 on 4/20 at 4:00 p.m.)