DIA – Dow Industrials ETF (Last:232.80)

DIA would need to fall by 5 or 6 points to start looking interesting enough to play for a bounce. In the meantime. we’ll look to catch a piece of the downside using put options that have gone from extremely overpriced in April to somewhat underpriced now. Specifically, near-the-money puts are sporting implied volatilities of around 30 versus recent actual volatility in the underlying of around 50. Accordingly, I’ll suggest bidding 0.46 for four May 230 puts expiring this Friday. Mark the order good for the first 15 minutes of the session only. Although it would take a strong opening in DIA to push the puts down to our niggardly bid, my objective is to get subscribers familiar enough with the option grid that any trades we attempt as the week wears on will seem more familiar. ______ UPDATE (May 13, 9:24 p.m. EDT): We’ll give the downtrend wide berth, since it feels like it could snowball.  If a countertrend opportunity were to materialize, the most logical place for this to occur would be near 228.44.  Pivoteers looking for a quick play should plant the low of an rABC pattern there to set up the trade. _____UPDATE (May 14, 10:27 a.m.): The 228.44 reversal target noted above has worked precisely, although the jury is still out on whether it will mark today’s low. A subscriber reported covering some puts at the target — a good thing, since DIA has bounced 1.50 off the low so far. _______ UPDATE (11:12 a.m.): The jury is no longer out, since the Dow Industrials have rallied 460 points and are trading close to ‘even’ since bottoming a hair beneath my 228.44 target.  I’ve asked subscribers to let me know if they were able to get long at the low using my instruction. If so, I will establish a tracking position.