ESU20 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:3073.50)

Last Sunday night’s powerful short squeeze was obviously weighing on bears’ minds all week, making them too fearful to push the futures lower with any conviction. Friday’s session ended with a timid breakdown that triggered a theoretical ‘short’ to p=3012.88 of the chart shown. We won’t speculate on whether it will hold, but if not, that would signal additional downside over the near term to as low as 2869.50. Even so, I’ll recommend bottom-fishing at p using an entry tactic that risks no more 1.50-2.00  points initially. _____ UPDATE (Jun 22, 8:25 p.m.): I am just a spectator now and no longer trying to get short, since it feels like everyone else is trying too. I still doubt the futures are going anywhere — other than down once DaBoyz have finished distributing as much stock as the traffic will bear. That could happen today, tomorrow or next week, but it’s pointless to obsess over the question of exactly when. _______ UPDATE (Jun 23, 8:55 p.m.): Wednesday will usher in Day 7 of a skillful distribution by DaBoyz. Conditions are perfect for this, since nothing says ‘Buy buy buy!’ like the resurgence of a pandemic.  V-shaped-recovery bozos, Kudlow chief among them, took a hit from Fauci, who asserted that the virus would not slow down over the summer. The damage this will do to businesses that are barely surviving is incalculable, and that too was evidently deemed a ‘positive’ on Wall Street, since it could coax new stimulus from the Guvmint. _______ UPDATE (Jun 24, 7:38 p.m.): There’s no reason for speculation or doubt, since the futures’ impending interaction with a midpoint Hidden Pivot at 3012.88 should tell us all we need to know.  If the support is crushed or the September contract closes for two straight days below it, that would grease the skids down to at least p2=2941.19, or D=2869.50 if any lower. Here’s the chart. Night owls can attempt bottom-fishing at ‘p’ using a ‘reverse ABC’ set-up, but risk no more than $300 per contract initially. _______ UPDATE (June 25, 7:14 a.m.): The rABC trade triggered with a bounce from an actual low at 3005 and is showing a profit at the moment of $1400 per contract. If I hear from at least two subscribers who followed my guidance I’ll establish a tracking position. In any event, you should take profits on half the position here, around 3041. If you hold only a single contract, use a 3018.75 stop-loss for now and use 3090 for a target. ______ UPDATE (June 25, 8:46 a.m.): The position stopped out for a profit of around $3500. I think it’s safe for the time being to treat all rallies as an excrescence of mental illness, greed and stupidity, later to be regretted not just by bulls, but by those who haven’t used the rallies as opportunities to get short. _______ UPDATE (Jun 25, 6:01 p.m.): A move back up to the green line (3084.56) would trigger a mechanical short, stop 3156.50, but I am recommended the trade only to Pivoteers who know how to use ‘camouflage’ to cut the $3500 theoretical entry risk per contract to a tenth of that or less. Note to rookies: The green line is not to be treated as support, resistance or a prospective turning point.