The Naz would fall about 5% short of doubling off the March 23 low if it achieves the 12529 target shown, but who could possibly be disappointed? It would become a talking point for Campaign Trump, even though even Joe Sixpack must understand by now that the rally is, to put it mildly, unwarranted. An interesting technical aspect of the chart is that if speculators defer for a couple of months to the resurgence of the pandemic, sending this hoax spiraling down to x=8103, that would set up a ‘mechanical’ buy of the back-up-the-truck kind. To speak of boarding at these levels is overreach, since we’d be in the midst of a stampede that favors only buffaloes that are able to run to the horizon without tiring. ______ UPDATE (Jul 13, 9:45): Today’s wicked reversal will have caught most investors with their pants down while also scaring the crap out of them. Look for them to attempt distribution on weak buying, and to grow increasingly desperate over the next few days. Prices will be significantly lower a week from now. _______ UPDATE (Jul 14, 8:07 p.m. EDT): The herd reversed Monday’s selling in the first hour, and then it was off to the races. Their binge took an added, manic leap as the night session began, warning bears to get out of the way and challenging any trader or investor looking for an easy out to “make my day.” A minor, uptrending pattern (5-min, A=10,525 at 3:20 p.m.) as we went to press projected to D=10,799.25 and should be considered by night owls looking for a way to get aboard. ______ UPDATE (Jul 15, 9:30); Nice try, fellas, but today’s dirigible ride failed by more than 30 points to achieve the 10799 target. I’ve emphasized the downside in this chart accordingly, and it implies that NQ will fall to 10504 if the red line is decisively breached. If it happens overnight, you can bottom-fish there with a stop-loss as tight as you can abide. ______ UPDATE (Jul 16, 9:15): The futures fell as expected to the 10504 pivot, then spent the rest of the day pussyfooting with it. Not much else to say at the moment.
NQU20 – Sep E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:10570)