I was more eager to short this rabid weasel when it tiptoed to within an inch of the 3402.75 target last week. However, the subsequent dive-and-bounce histrionics seem too strenuous to produce a merely marginal higher high when index futures resume trading Sunday night. To get just a step ahead of hard technical evidence, my gut feeling is that the futures will blow past p with such force that we can confidently assume they are one their way to the 3486.00 target of the pattern shown. You can short 3402.75 nonetheless, but approach it as a day trade — i.e., with a tight stop and expectations of just a small profit. This one may trigger Sunday evening, so night owls should be alert to that possibility when they return to their screens. _______ UPDATE (Aug 24, 6:27 p.m.): After a stumble in the first hour, the futures powered their way to another impressive gain. They should be presumed headed most immediately to at least 3444.38, the ‘secondary’ Hidden Pivot of the pattern projecting to 3486.00. Be alert to a possible stall there and, provided you know how, an opportunity to get short using an ‘rABC’ setup on the lesser intraday charts. _______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 6:18 p.m.): The 3486.00 target has the potential to create a major top, and I’d suggest you get short there in some way or fashion, even if it means interpolating with puts in SPY. I will be traveling tomorrow and not in the trading room, but you should stay close to the room for crowdsourced ideas if you’re interested in the trade. The 3486.00 target has been drum-rolled for long enough to be mildly jinxed, but don’t let that put you off. It deserves to be shorted come what may. If the futures blow past it, the next place we’ll look to lay ’em out is 3503.50, a number that has not gotten any publicity, as far as I’m aware (60-min, A= 3195.00 on 7/30). _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 5:53 p.m.): Yes, it does suck that the futures have gone all constipated an inch from the 3486.00 target without having touched it to get us short. The trade is still advised, albeit with more caution than originally warranted. If it fails, we can try again at 3503.50, a number less well advertised and perhaps even a little mysterious. _______ UPDATE Aug 27, 10:09 p.m.): Yet again, a very promising Hidden Pivot has gone to waste because the intraday high just missed touching it. We’ll watch from the sidelines today.
ESU20 – Sep E-Mini S&P (Last:3495.00)