Gold looks like a coin toss right now, with dueling impulse legs pointing in both directions. However, I’d bet on bulls to achieve the 2142.50 target eventually, even if the December contract corrects down to d=1837.10 first (see inset). The key, oddly enough, will be how quickly AAPL achieves its bull-market target at 537.23. They don’t ring a bell at market tops, as the saying goes, but the 4-to-1 stock split in AAPL next Monday is for all intents and purposes the bell that will signal an end to the most dollar-consequential mania in stock-market history.  If the target does in fact prove to be the top in AAPL — the 4-to-1 split price would be 134.30 — gold could begin moving higher before the bottom drops out of shares.

The most important caveat is the dollar, which is groping for a bottom and may have made one already. A strong dollar will put pressure on bullion, to be sure, but the effect would become muted over time due to rising perceptions that the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Nothing could hasten that perception more than shifting odds of a Biden victory. This is an outcome that very obviously is NOT priced into the market, and I am predicting a Trump landslide myself. But even four more years of Trump offers no guarantees that the global economy will pull out of its pandemic-induced tailspin. The resulting writedowns of capital that are already in motion —  New York City, for one, and a dozen other large cities that taxpayers are fleeing — represent a deflationary enormity almost beyond imagining. It is coming, though, and that’s why the stock market must fall, with AAPL leading the way. It could take as long as four to six months for the avalanche to get rolling. In any event, I will continue to forecast gold from week to week on a purely technical basis, and I am not locked into any scenario._______ UPDATE (Aug 25, 7:36 p.m.): Bears have been sticking and jabbing a 1930.4o midpoint support all week without landing any damaging blows.  They looked so feeble today, in fact, that I suggested bottom-fishing with a small rABC pattern down near 1907.50; that advice still holds. If support gives way, be prepared for a fall to at least p2=1883.80 (see inset), or even to 1837.10 if any lower. _______ UPDATE (Aug 26, 6:06 p.m.): Rick’s Picks subscriber were among the few who were neither fooled nor freaked when the fakeout artists who control gold caused it to plummet $10 in mere minutes early in the session. The low occurred less than $1 from the 1907.50 price noted above, where I’d suggested using an rABC set-up to get long. Some of you evidently did, getting aboard near the exact low of an explosive move that has pushed the futures $57 higher so far. The turn was NOT based on a Hidden Pivot, by the way, but on a calculation that is still in the experimental stage. Looking ahead, the December futures will still need to close for two consecutive  days above p=2008.30 to put the 2142.50 target noted above solidly in play. For now, though, 2008.30 can serve as a minimum upside objective. _______ UPDATE (Aug 27, 10:12 p.m.): Back away for now, since there is no way to trade this kind of  nuttiness confidently.