The Dollar Index poked tentatively above a Hidden Pivot target I’d flagged at 94.61 on Friday, but bulls will need to put a little more gusto into it to show they are capable of taking DXY to 100 and beyond. To be sure, September’s steep rally has earned a rest. But if new multi-year highs are coming, the pauses should be brief if not necessarily gentle. Indeed, a steep dive followed by an equally sharp recovery would be the best evidence we’ve had to date that the rally is for real; that’s how bull markets behave. In the meantime, we’ll take the smaller, bullish patterns as they come. The one in motion now, begun from 93.93 on 9/23, target 94.85 on the hourly chart. It can be bought ‘mechanically’ on a pullback to p=94.52, stop 94.30; or to x=94.36, stop 94.18. _______ UPDATE (Sep 29, 4:19 p.m. ET): Bulls had an opportunity to turn things around, but the bounce from a distinctive Hidden Pivot target at 93.84 couldn’t get past even a single ‘external’ peak. Now, the likelihood is that DXY will grope and stumble its way down to lows near 93.50 recorded last week. Alternatively, it would take a pop above 94.30 to reignited the bull trend begun on September 1.
DXY – NYBOT Dollar Index (Last:93.88)