SIZ20 – December Silver (Last:25.355)

Silver has behaved more bullishly than gold, but that’s not saying much. Like gold, it has achieved no net gain in three months, even as it has generated minor impulse legs that are slightly more powerful. It’s tracing out the completion of one now, in the form of a C-D follow-through leg that points to 26.40.  A pullback first to x= 24.33 (the green line) would trigger a mechanical buy — one sufficiently attractive that  I would rate the opportunity a juicy ‘7.9’ on our homegrown scale. Mindful of the $3400 entry risk per contract that this would entail, I will be looking for clever ways to get aboard, most likely an rABC set-up on the 15-minute (or less) chart. ______ UPDATE (Oct 28, 11:04): Unlike gold, December Silver has yet to breach a midpoint support at 22.825 that ‘s crucial to the short-term picture.  If it does, particularly if a two-day close below the red line ensues, that would portend more slippage to at least p2=21.38, or 19.94 if any lower. _______ UPDATE (Oct 29, 10:17 p.m.): Sellers cracked the 22.82 midpoint support today, raising a yellow flag despite the 75-cent rally that followed. Bulls will need a print at 25.72 to justify a confidently bullish bias. _______ UPDATE (Nov 2, 9:55): The ‘mechanical’ short triggered at 24.25, implying a stop-loss at 25.70, just above the point ‘C’ high. No one reported doing the trade in the chat room, but if you did, bring the stop down to 24.77, where a print would generate a bullish impulse leg on the hourly chart. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 12:05 a.m.): There was a theoretical profit of $6200 per contract in the short position at today’s low, but I am not tracking it because interest in the chat room appears to be nil. My bearish outlook and target still obtain nonetheless. ______ UPDATE (Nov 5, 9:34 p.m.): Silver has been getting zero buzz in the chat room lately, so I’m taking it off the front page for a while. I will still respond to posts about this vehicle in the room, however. Today’s robust rally was of course bullish, but I’ll need to see a push above C-25.695 before I get enthused.