I’ve focused on a lesser rally pattern that is more bullish than the one shown in the ES tout because this vehicle is likely to lead the charge. It would take relatively modest push to achieve the 12533 target, but the futures will first need to close for two consecutive days above p2=12,136 or trade more than 80 points above it before we can assume a move to the target is coming. A pullback in the meantime to p=11738 would trip an enticing ‘mechanical’ buy, but the entry risk of $13,000 per contract implied by the 11473 stop-loss would necessitate the use of a ‘camouflage’ entry set-up designed to reduce that by at least 95%. Stay tuned. _______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 8:12 a.m.): When I said it would take a modest push to reach the target, I hadn’t imagined this might occur in the space of just half a day. Modest that ain’t. The pullback from an overnight high at 12408 was too violent for any swing traders to have survived, but not the buy-and-hold chimps who have ruled the markets — the tech stocks, actually — all along. ______ UPDATE (Nov 9, 6:18 p.m.): The 12,533 target remains viable, predicated on a ‘mechanical’ buy at p=11,738, stop 11,473. A more conservative bet would be to initiate the trade at 11,341, stop 10,943, but there are no guarantees the retracement will get down there. ______ UPDATE (Nov 10, 7:14 p.m.): The ‘mechanical’ buy on a pullback to x=11,341 has been downgraded to ‘unappealing’, since the rally leg being corrected came close to achieving its 12,533 target. The near-miss is bearish, even if the target remains theoretically viable. The next appealing buy would come on a pullback into the ‘dead zone’ between two important lows at, respectively, 10,660 (8/24) and 10,942 (11/2). That implies a further fall of around 800 points is possible. _______ UPDATE (Nov 11, 6:07 p.m.): The minor bullish pattern shown is equivalent to the one given in the latest E-Mini S&P tout, except that the former has achieved its D target. Now, a push past it would need to hit 12,046 to generate the fresh impulse leg required to re-energize the lesser charts.
NQZ20 – Dec E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:11,888)
