The ascent toward a 12,741 target [please note that this has been corrected to correspond to the chart] has been a tortuous, ten-week slog ever since the futures tripped a theoretical buy signal eleven weeks ago at 11172. We’ve had a couple of ‘mechanical’ winners along the way, but last week’s high just shy of the target suggests the pattern’s usefulness is spent. The actual high at 12677 missed by 64 points, or 0.5%, and although the target is still valid in theory, its only practical value for us now is that a decisive breach would suggest buyers have sufficient energy for a further push into new-record territory. Most immediately, we should be especially cautious, since it’s conceivable that an important top is in.
NQH21 – March E-Mini Nasdaq (Last:12368)
