GCJ21 – April Gold (Last:1715.10)

Bulls struggled last week to hold above a key Hidden Pivot support at 1702, but their failure to endure portends more downside over the near term to 1630.50. That’s my worst case target for now, and although the chart pattern that produced it is highly unconventional, using a visually obvious ‘marquee’ high and a point ‘B’ low that failed to exceed any significant prior lows, it’s all we’ve got. The pattern is certainly good enough for government work, meaning a tradeable reversal at or near D is highly likely. We will remain open-minded nonetheless toward the unthinkable — i.e., a decisive breach of the 1630.50 pivot that would imply an eventual test of the 1467 watershed low recorded exactly a year ago. A relatively minor ‘hidden support’ at 1660.40 mentioned here earlier also remains viable and can be used to bottom-fish with a very tight stop-loss. Gold clearly does not like anything Powell has to say, even when his obfuscations suggest the Fed will continue to pursue inflationary policies with reckless abandon. So why doesn’t bullion rally on that prospect? Perhaps it understands that the inflate-or-die effort is ultimately doomed. Even so, that is hardly a reason for bullion prices to have fallen relentlessly since last August’s $2100 high. _______ UPDATE (Mar 8, 7:05 p.m. ET): A downside target at 1667.20 that I flagged in the chat room has surfaced as a possible “best case” for a turn. If you use  a ‘reverse ABC’ pattern to set up a trade, the A-B segment can be as tight as 10 points, provided you plant the point ‘C’ low within 1.00 point of the target. Here’s the chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 9, 4:29 p.m.): The futures have levitated themselves off a 1673 low that stranded our niggardly bid, but I have little enthusiasm for chasing the rally.

  • Gregory Ewanizky March 8, 2021, 11:45 am

    Rick, I used to work for Pete and Bill Napoli on the PSE options floor. I remember Pete had your black box newsletter.😀😀 anyway how do you figure that the two quadrillion dollars in derivatives are a short position against the dollar? Thank you

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    Most derivative instrument are settled in dollars, with the presumption that the dollars will be readily available when it comes time to settle. Still better for the party that must come up with the dollars would be for their value to have cheapened when it comes time to settle. But what if dollars have instead grown more valuable and harder to come by. This would happen in the money market, for one, if short-term paper cannot be rolled over — i.e., when the lender demands immediate payment in cash. RA

  • Sridhar March 7, 2021, 9:42 pm

    Very useful massage about your tips & hidden pivot also