Gold’s lengthy unspooling has become all but insufferable, an arrested bull market doing its best to vex and frustrate even the most patient bulls. My hunch is that the long correction will end with a brutal washout, but even then, the final low would be subject to a Hidden Pivot ‘D’ support. The one at 1612.30 shown in the chart would qualify, but moreso if the plunge to it is appropriately steep. Regardless, I’d be tempted to try tightly stopped bottom-fishing at the 1683.30 midpoint pivot, or even at p2=1647.60. There are no larger corrective patterns with more authority than the small one shown because the entire slide since last August exceeded no ‘external’ lows of significance. The small pattern did, however, and that’s why I am using it to project a possible bottom. I am not married to the washout scenario, however, and will remain alert to any subtle upturn from p or p2 as a possible watershed low. ______UPDATE (Mar 30, 10:55 a.m. ET): April Gold’s plunge this morning through a midpoint Hidden Pivot support at 1683.30 has shortened the odds of a further fall to D=1612.30, the target given above. Here’s a fresh chart. ______ UPDATE (Mar 31, 9:22 p.m.): Let’s set the bar at 1735.60, a tick above an ‘external’ peak made Monday on the way down, before we wax enthusiastic about today’s short-squeeze rally. _______UPDATE (Apr 1, 10:17 a.m.): June Gold triggered a ‘mechanical’ short today at 1720.7, stop 1756.10. It is predicated on a fall to D=1614.60, equivalent to 1735.60, basis June. I would rate the trade ‘7.0’ — not bad, although the implied $14,000 risk on four contracts calls for a ‘camouflage’ entry set-up that would reduce that to under $1000 theoretical. Specifically, an rABC set-up on the hourly chart can be attempted between 1741 and 1746 using an a-b interval of around $10.
GCJ21 – April Gold (Last:1732.30)